Alumina Futures Decline Rapidly, Spot Prices Hit Record Lows Repeatedly [SMM Morning Comment on Alumina]

SMM Morning Comment on Alumina 1.15

Futures Market: During the overnight session, the most-traded alumina 2502 contract opened at 3,909 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,920 yuan/mt and a low of 3,860 yuan/mt, finally closing at 3,877 yuan/mt, down by 32 yuan/mt or 0.82%. Open interest stood at 93,144 lots, an increase of 3,312 lots.

Industry Dynamics: On January 13, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $635/mt FOB Visakhapatnam, India, with shipment scheduled for late February.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, as of 11:30 on January 14, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of 1,088 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On January 14, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 36,600 mt. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina remained unchanged at 0 mt. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 9,000 mt to 12,000 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 301 mt. In Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 0 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 9,319 mt to 24,300 mt.

Overseas Market: As of January 14, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $610/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.9/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.35. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 5,328 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 197 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.

Summary: Recently, the weekly operating rate of alumina has continued to increase slightly, while demand remains relatively stable. With low-price transactions gradually emerging in the market, some suppliers have become more active in selling, leading to an increase in the availability of spot alumina in the market. Spot transactions have seen a wider discount against online prices. In the short term, some alumina capacity in Shanxi is expected to resume production, leading to an anticipated increase in supply. On the demand side, aluminum operating rates remain relatively stable. The alumina market is expected to maintain a slight surplus in fundamentals, and spot alumina prices may continue their downward trend in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]